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    Business cycle dating

    The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee uses many methods and data analysis to determine the timing of business cycle peaks and troughs.

    They do not simply use, as the media frequently states, 2 consecutive quarters of decline in RGDP.

    The committee also has other indicators they look at such as the Federal Reserve’s index of industrial production (IP). , when “economy-wide indicators are in conflict or do not have well-defined peaks or troughs”, this helps them to determine the peak and trough dates.

    When looking at other indicators, it opens the potential to double count some of the sectors that are included in real GDP. To further explain the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating methodologies I will use their memos from the recent U. 007 – 2009 Great Recession to highlight their analysis and determinations.

    In fact, the committee does not even have a set of rules or definitions they must follow to determine the timing of the business cycles peaks and troughs.

    The committee “examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income.

    Findings Methodology Data sources FAQs The CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is composed of nine CEPR researchers, establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven-original euro-area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.

    The Committee released its new findings in August 2017.

    business cycle dating-4

    The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak.

    The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.

    During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.

    A BCDC maintains a chronology comprising alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.

    It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, business cycle dating prices, etc.

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